United Airlines Forecasts Profit Below Estimates as Jet-Fuel Costs Rise

United Airlines forecast fourth-quarter profit below Wall Street estimates on 20 October, as it budgeted for another rise in jet-fuel costs despite strong travel demand.

The carrier expects adjusted earnings of 50 cents to $1.50 a share for the December quarter. Analysts surveyed by LSEG had expected $1.76, Reuters reported.

United's outlook assumes fuel will average about $4.80 a gallon, compared with $3.90 in the third quarter. The assumption is based on the Gulf Coast jet-fuel forward curve as of 16 October, rather than a guaranteed purchase price.

Third-quarter revenue reached a record $17.9 billion, up 17.4% from a year earlier. Yet its adjusted pre-tax margin fell to 6.2% from 8%, showing how higher sales can coexist with tighter profitability.

Demand remains a source of support. United forecasts fourth-quarter revenue growth of more than 20% and expects growth in its adjusted non-fuel unit-cost measure to slow compared with the third quarter.

The airline said its fuel assumption was about 45 cents above consensus, a difference equivalent to roughly $1 a share in quarterly earnings. That leaves the profit outlook particularly sensitive to fuel prices.

Sources: United investor update; United third-quarter results; Reuters report, all dated 20 October 2026.

Archival photo (2017): tjdarmstadt / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0. 16:9 framing by Morval Universal; no additional crop.